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基于决策树算法的鄂东地区冰雹识别技术

袁凯, 李武阶, 庞晶. 基于决策树算法的鄂东地区冰雹识别技术. 应用气象学报, 2023, 34(2): 234-245. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230209..
引用本文: 袁凯, 李武阶, 庞晶. 基于决策树算法的鄂东地区冰雹识别技术. 应用气象学报, 2023, 34(2): 234-245. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230209.
Yuan Kai, Li Wujie, Pang Jing. Hail identification technology in Eastern Hubei based on decision tree algorithm. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(2): 234-245. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230209.
Citation: Yuan Kai, Li Wujie, Pang Jing. Hail identification technology in Eastern Hubei based on decision tree algorithm. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(2): 234-245. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230209.

基于决策树算法的鄂东地区冰雹识别技术

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230209
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    通信作者:

    李武阶,1669625159@qq.com

Hail Identification Technology in Eastern Hubei Based on Decision Tree Algorithm

  • 摘要: 冰雹是对流性天气常见的灾害之一,雷达是识别冰雹强有利的工具,为克服现有方法主观性强、特征量阈值不明确以及虚警率高的不足,探究机器学习算法用于冰雹识别的可行性,基于决策树算法利用2015年1月1日—2021年12月31日鄂东地区冰雹灾情资料、武汉多普勒天气雷达以及探空资料,将湿球温度高度引入冰雹识别因子中,并根据命中率、虚警率和临界成功指数定量评估其识别能力。结果表明:仅包含回波强度的决策树(强度决策树)和包含回波强度和湿球温度高度的决策树(强度-高度决策树)均能有效识别冰雹,强度-高度决策树较强度决策树的命中率和临界成功指数均小幅提高,且虚警率明显降低;强度决策树识别冰雹的关键因子为组合反射率因子,底层多为0.5°和1.5°仰角反射率因子,强度-高度决策树的关键因子为0.5°仰角反射率因子,底层多为风暴的整体强度属性;个例分析显示强度-高度决策树减少了湿球0℃层高度较高时的虚警次数,展现出良好的应用前景。
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  • 收稿日期:  2022-09-19
  • 修回日期:  2022-12-17
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-03-02

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